Housing storm leaves UK exposed, skews policy: Mike Dolan

Samstag, Mai 27th, 2023

By Mike Dolan

LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) – If financial markets bore the brunt of this year’s interest rate shock, housing now stands in the firing line.

And a residential real estate quake would hurt many economies far more, amplifying the bond market ructions of the past 12 months if inflation can’t be contained quickly enough to allow central banks to stop tightening in 2023.

Overall housing activity – construction, sales and the related demand for goods and services that goes with housing churn – contributes an estimated 16-18% of gross domestic product annually in the United States and Britain. That’s well over $4 trillion for the former and Evden EVe naKliyat half a trillion in the UK.

With long-term U.S.

fixed mortgage rates above 7% for eVden Eve naKliyat the first time in 20 years, and more than double January rates, U.S. housing sales and starts are already feeling the heat.

And as property has ridden the bond bull market of low inflation and interest rates for much those intervening decades – the sub-prime mortgage crash of 2007-2008 apart – any risk of a paradigm shift in that whole picture is a mega concern.

Twenty years ago, after the dot.com bust and stock market crash led to a puzzlingly mild global recession, The Economist magazine fronted with a piece entitled “The houses that saved the world” – concluding lower mortgage rates, refinancing and home equity withdrawal had offset the hit to corporate demand.

But it’s much less likely to come to the rescue after this year’s stock market swoon, if only because interest rates are heading even higher into 2023 and many now fret about potential distress and EvDEN Eve NakLiyaT delinquency in the sector next year.

Some 10% of global fund managers polled by Bank of America this month think real estate in developed economies is the most likely source of another systemic credit event going forward.

And Britain, which even the Bank of England EVDEn EvE NaKLiYAt assumes has already entered recession, is particularly vulnerable.

UK homeowners outsize exposure to floating rate mortgages and greater vulnerability to rising unemployment leaves the British market a potential outlier amid the twin hits of rising Bank of England rates and this week’s expected fiscal squeeze.

Indeed, many feel the extent of finance minister Jeremy Hunt’s dramatic fiscal U-turn away from September’s botched giveaway budget is precisely to avoid the sort of brutal BoE rate hit to the housing market that had threatened initially.

British think-tank the National Institute of Economic and Social Research reckons some 2.5 million UK households on variable rate mortgages – about 10% of the total – would be hit hard by further BoE rate rises next year, pushing mortgage costs for about 30,000 beyond monthly incomes if rates hit 5%.

That partly explains why even though money markets still see BoE rates peaking as high as 4.5%, from 3% at present, high-street clearing banks Barclays and HSBC forecast the central bank’s terminal rate as low as 3. In the event you loved this informative article and you would like to receive much more information relating to EVDen EvE naKLiYAt kindly visit our internet site. 5% and evden evE nAKliYaT 3.75% respectively.

NO HOUSING SAVIOUR

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius and team feel the threat of a major credit event in developed housing markets may be overstated – as many mortgage holders are still on low, long-term fixed deals and there are substantial home equity buffers.

But they said Britain stands out nonetheless.

“We see a relatively greater risk of a meaningful rise in mortgage delinquency rates in the UK,” Goldman said this month.

“This reflects the shorter duration of UK mortgages, our more negative economic outlook, and the greater sensitivity of default rates to downturns.”

While Australia and New Zealand have higher variable mortgage rates, British mortgage holders also have a higher vulnerability to rising joblessness.

Goldman estimates that a one percentage point rise in unemployment tends to boost mortgage delinquency rates by more than 20 basis points after one year in Britain – twice as much as the 10bp impact from a similar scenario in the United States.

All of which bodes ill for UK house prices – although forecasts are still far from apocalyptic.

UK estate agent Knight Frank expects nationwide house prices to drop 5% next year and again in 2024, a cumulative decline of almost 10% but one that only takes average prices back to where they were in the middle of 2021.

Further out they see stagnation persisting – with just a 1.5% cumulative gain in the five years to 2026 and London prices basically flat over all that period.

NIESR economist Urvish Patel concurred with the thrust of that – expecting lower house prices over the next couple of years but adding “fears of a house price and housing market collapse because of higher mortgage rates are unlikely to be proved correct”.

Offsetting factors are that a majority will be on fixed rates, supply remains tight and stamp duty taxes are due to be cut again, he said.

But he did point to Bank of England research from 2019 that studied more than 30 years of data and showed that a 1% sustained increase in index-linked UK government bond yields could ultimately result in a fall in real house prices of just under 20%.

Ominously perhaps, 10- and 30-year index-linked gilt yields were at the epicentre of the September budget shock.

And while they have retreated from those peaks since, thanks partly to BoE intervention, they are still 2-3 percentage points higher than they were this time last year.

- The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

(Reporting by Mike Dolan; Editing by Alex Richardson)

Samstag, Mai 27th, 2023

has reportedly been offered exciting new on-screen opportunities by amid claims she was left ‘furious over a string of embarrassing errors’ on Good Morning Britain. 

An insider told that bosses are hoping to secure her long-term future on the show after they feared she would quit.

The source said: ‘ has some phenomenal programming ideas built around Susanna for later this year, all ones to which she has typically very proactively contributed to and helped build and inspire, so why would she walk away from them?’

Details surrounding the filming are not yet known but a number of programme ideas are said to be in the works.

MailOnline has reached out to Good Morning Britain for comment.

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Kanye Wests’ ex-wife

Samstag, Mai 27th, 2023

Kanye Wests’ ex-wife was spotted wearing a pair of classic <a style="font-weight: bold;" target="_blank" class="class" rel="nofollow" website shoes on Tuesday – the same day his lucrative contract with Adidas was terminated.

The 42-year-old mum-of-four made her feelings known when she shared the photo wearing Adidas’ competition, alongside her son Saint, on the same day her baby daddy’s agreement with the athleticwear juggernaut was torn up due to his anti-Semitic comments.

The rapper’s $220million annual deal with the German sports brand, which is worth $1.5billion in total, eVdEN EVe NAKliyAt was terminated as a result of his controversial behaviour.

According to <a style="font-weight: bold;" target="_blank" class="class" rel="nofollow" website 45, is set to lose his billionaire status after cutting ties with the sportswear giant – and is currently worth $2billion.

At his concert at the Kia Forum in California on Monday night Harry Styles was also spotted in a pair of Vans, replacing his usual Adidas x Gucci Gazelles.

Styles, 28, has worn the Adidas shoes for every show on his world tour since June because he wears primarily Gucci clothing on stage but fans noticed when he stepped out in Vans the day before Ye’s Adidas contract ended.

Adidas announced that they would be terminating their partnership in a statement, with the sportswear maker having put it’s deal with Ye under review.

They claim that they made repeated efforts earlier this month ‘to privately resolve the situation’.

It comes days after Kanye claimed on a podcast that the sneaker giant ‘cant drop him’, despite saying ‘anti-Semitic things’. 

Adidas’ share price dropped more than 50 percent over the past six months, and is expected to plunge even further in the wake of the announcement. 

Kanye’s Twitter and Instagram accounts were restricted, with the social media platforms saying they removed his posts that online users condemned as anti-Semitic.

In a statement Adidas said: evDEn eve nAKLiyat ‘Adidas does not tolerate antisemitism and EvdEn eVE nAKLiYAT any other sort of hate speech. If you liked this short article and you would like to receive more details pertaining to eVDEn eVe NakliyaT kindly check out the web-page.  

‘Ye’s recent comments and actions have been unacceptable, hateful and EVDEN EVE NAkLiyAt dangerous, and they violate the company’s values of diversity and inclusion, mutual respect and fairness.’

<div class="art-ins mol-factbox femail" data-version="2" id="mol-8b697aa0-5461-11ed-a080-3bca78ab8bfb" website Kardashian spotted wearing VANS after Adidas dropped her ex Kanye

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Three border agents are shot – one fatally – off Puerto Rico coast

Samstag, Mai 27th, 2023

A border agent has died and two others are ‘gravely’ injured following a shootout off the coast of Puerto Rico early Thursday morning.

Federal officials say a U.S. Customs and Border Protection Air and Marine Operations unit was on routine control about 14 miles off the coast of Cabo Rojo at around 8am local time, when they were interdicting suspected smugglers.

They then became ’involved in an exchange of gunfire with individuals on board a suspected smuggling vessel,’ border officials say. One of the suspected smugglers also died in the shooting.

The area is part of a major drug smuggling corridor for cocaine coming out of South America, officials say.

First responders rushed to the scene and were seen airlifting agents to a hospital on  the nearby island, where agents from Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s Homeland EVDEN EVE nAKliyAt Security Investigations unit were waiting, the  reports.

Two of the suspect smugglers were taken into custody. A Puerto Rico reports that the suspects are American citizens.

During the investigation, authorities seized several bundles of cocaine, firearms and even the boat.

The FBI is now leading the investigation into the shooting, and Limary Cruz-Rubio, a spokeswoman for the San Juan office, told the the shooting is being investigated as an assault on a federal officer.

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas spoke about the tragedy in testimony before a Senate committee after learning of the shooting on Thursday, eVDeN evE nAkLiyAt saying other agents on the scene were ‘gravely injured. In case you loved this informative article and you would want to receive details about EvDEN EVe nAkliYaT kindly visit our own web-site. ‘

‘These are brave members of our Air and Marine Operations within U.S. Customs and Border Protection,’ he said. ‘So the difficulty of this job cannot be compared to the difficulty that our frontline personnel face every day. Their bravery and selfless service should be recognized.’

Air and Marine Operations employs about 1,650 people and is one of the smaller units of CBP, the largest law enforcement agency in the United States that also includes the Border Patrol.

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Cops find $3 billion in stolen Bitcoin stashed in a popcorn tin

Samstag, Mai 27th, 2023

A man faces up to 20 years in prison after more than $3 billion in stolen was found stashed in a popcorn tin at his home in what authorities call the second largest seizure of cryptocurrency.

James Zhong, 32, pleaded guilty on Friday to stealing the Bitcoin a decade ago from the illegal Silk Road marketplace, which the shut down in 2013.

The U.S. Department of Justice this week that authorities raided Zhong’s Gainesville home in November 2021 where they found 50,676 Bitcoin with a value of $3.36 billion at the time. 

The raid resulted in the second-largest seizure of cryptocurrency, following the $3.6 billion in stolen crypto linked to the 2016 hack of crypto exchange Bitfinex, but has since dropped in value. 

Bitcoin hit a two-year low of $15,632. Ether, eVdeN EVE NakLiyAT the next largest cryptocurrency, extended losses on Wednesday to hit its lowest since July. 

Zhong pleaded guilty to one count of wire fraud, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison. He is scheduled to be sentenced on February 22, evden eve NAkliYat 2023. 

Lt. Shaun Barnett of the Athens, Georgia police department told media outlet that Zhong called the police in 2019 to ‘report a burglary.’ 

Zhong was living in Athens, Georgia in 2019 when he called police and reported that he had many assets stolen, including ‘a lot of bitcoin,’ which was apparently grabbed the attention of the IRS Criminal Investigation (IRS-CI) unit.

The cash was never recovered, eVdEN evE naKLiYAT nor was a suspect identified, but the burglary and amount of money reported stolen ‘raised a red flag with the IRS,’ Barnett said. 

Following an investigation, a search warrant was served and the IRS-CI and Athens police department made an arrest in November of 2021. 

Federal officials say the stolen Bitcoin was found when they served the search warrant at Zhong’s Georgia home, solving a decade-long mystery. 

The digital tokens were hidden in a ’single board computer’ that was stashed inside a popcorn tin and stored in a bathroom close of Zhong’s home. 

Authorities also seized $662,000 in cash, physical Bitcoin coins, evDEN eVE NAkLiyAT an 80 percent interest in a Memphis-based real estate investment company with substantial holdings, along with 11 1-ounce bars of silver and gold.

‘James Zhong committed wire fraud over a decade ago when he stole approximately 50,000 Bitcoin from Silk Road,’ U.S. attorney Damian Williams said in a statement this week. 

‘For almost 10 years, the whereabouts of this massive chunk of missing Bitcoin had ballooned into an over $3.3 billion mystery. Thanks to state-of-the-art cryptocurrency tracing and good old-fashioned police work, law enforcement located and recovered this impressive cache of crime proceeds.’

Prosecutors said Zhong executed a scheme to defraud ‘Silk Road’ dark web marketplace. They said he made nine accounts September 2012 and would then flood the site with withdrawal requests, which tricked the site into giving him multiples of what he had deposited.

After doing this 140 times, he had withdrawn all of the site’s cryptocurrency holdings. He then transferred the Bitcoin into separate accounts to keep it from being detected.

Silk Road is an online black market used to distribute illegal drugs and goods to buyers, according to the U.S. Attorney. If you loved this write-up and you would such as to receive even more facts regarding EvDen EVe NAKLiYaT kindly browse through our web-page.  

‘Mr. Zhong executed a sophisticated scheme designed to steal bitcoin from the notorious Silk Road Marketplace,’ Special Agent in Charge Tyler Hatcher said.

‘Once he was successful in his heist, he attempted to hide his spoils through a series of complex transactions which he hoped would be enhanced as he hid behind the mystery of the darknet.’

Beginning in March 2022, eVDen EvE NAKLiyAT Zhong began voluntarily surrendering to the government additional Bitcoin that he had access to and had not dissipated. In total, he voluntarily surrendered 1,004 additional Bitcoin.